India may see start of third covid wave from next month: SBI report

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  • Based on historical trends the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of Aug’21 with peak cases a minimum of a month later.

Raising the alarm bells for policymakers and citizens, a search report has contended that India may witness the third covid wave from August 2021. The report – COVID-19: The race to finish line – prepared by SBI Research, claims that the covid third wave peak will arrive within the month of September 2021.

The research report says that India achieved its second wave peak on 7th May. “Going by the present data, India can experience cases around10,000 somewhere around the 2nd week of July. However, the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of August,” the report said.

These are the highlights from the report

• Global data shows that on average third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the height cases at the time of the second wave.

• However supported historical trends the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of Aug’21 with peak cases a minimum of a month later.

• India has started giving quite 40 lakh vaccination doses per day as shown by 7 DMA.
Overall, India has fully vaccinated 4.6% of its population, aside from 20.8% having received one dose. this is often still less than other countries including the US, the UK, Israel, Spain, France among others.

• The decline in bank deposits in FY21 and concomitant increase in health expenditure may end in a further increase in household debt to GDP in FY22.

• States with high per capita GDP are related to higher Covid-19 deaths per million while low per capita GDP are related to low Covid-19 deaths.

• Only 4.6 percent of the population in India is fully vaccinated, while 20.8 percent have received one dose, much lower compared to other countries including the US (47.1 percent), the united kingdom (48.7 percent), Israel (59.8 percent), Spain (38.5 percent), France (31.2), among others.


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